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2007-08 Seminars

Photovoltaic Technology Options for Addressing Climate Change: An Expert Elicitation

Dr. Aimee Curtright
Postdoctoral Research Fellow
Climate Decision Making Center

Abstract
Expert elicitation has been used to assess the future performance of 26 current and emerging photovoltaic (PV) technologies. 18 leading experts in the field have estimated the likelihood of each technology achieving specific module price thresholds within given time frames. For a subset of the technologies, 14 experts provided insight into technical barriers to success, plausible ranges of efficiencies and prices in 2030, and appropriate policy levers for optimizing PV performance. Development of the survey and results will be discussed.